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Re: Euro finance ministers to agree on Greek aid: source | CALENDAR MAR 15

Released on 2001-03-13 18:00 GMT

Email-ID 1122770
Date 2010-03-15 02:40:47
Here are some of the options for what could happen tomorrow:

1. They say they agree to the idea of establishing a facility. Changes

2. They say they are planning to establish a facility. Changes nothing.

3. They say they are currently establishing a facility. Changes nothing.

4. They say they have established a facility. Depends on the details.

If they announce a facility, it'll likely be composed of guarantees.
Guaranteeing Greek debt would probably lower CDS spreads and Greece's
borrowing costs slightly, but the impact would only be at the margin.
Since the Greek economy will continue to contract, there's no reason why
Greece's borrowing costs won't, at the very least, stay elevated, and thus
continue to undermine the efficacy of Athens' austerity measures.

The fact is that the only thing that will substantially help Greece is
loans at far below market rates. Unfortunately, even if the Eurozone
agrees to supply Greece with 0% loans, while it will ameliorate the
imminent threat of a liquidity crisis (for now), that credit line will do
nothing to help get Greece back on a sustainable fiscal path.