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Released on 2012-03-14 17:00 GMT

Email-ID 1143273
Date 2010-02-22 15:01:03
I don't disagree with you but this is all very new and in flux so it would
be best if we didn't come out strongly that the AKP has contained the
military. The TSK is not without cards and they are using them. Last week
we had a brief on how they are again trying to get a case through the
judiciary to have the ruling party outlawed on charges of supporting
Kurdish separatism.

From: []
On Behalf Of George Friedman
Sent: February-22-10 8:55 AM
To: Analyst List

We know that there is tension between the government and the military. It
seems to me that the government is having no problem controlling the
military elements. As this incidence shows the government knows what they
are doing and arrests them when it feels like them. Why isn't the
conclusion here about the weakness of the secular forces and the strength
of the Islamists. This seems a very one-sided struggle.

Emre Dogru wrote:

with Kamran's approval. the sooner published the better. there is nothing
about this in international media yet.

A raid has started early in the morning in the houses and offices of the
retired Turkish generals and some others were arrested Feb. 22. The reason
of the recent investigation (which is the biggest against the retired and
serving military officials so far) is the so-called Balyoz (Sledgehammer)
plan (LINK:
that reportedly outlined the plan of the Turkish army in 2003 to intervene
should anti-secular movements get out of hand. Former 1st Army General
Cetin Dogan, deputy commander of Turkish Armed Forces Ergin Saygun, navy
general Ozden Ornek and air forces general Ibrahim Firtina are among those
who are accused of being involved in army's plots to topple the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Sledgehammer Plan was revealed in last January. The plan allegedly
contains actions that the Turkish army was supposed to take in 2003, such
as bombing a mosque in Istanbul and shutting down a Turkish jet plane over
the Aegean Sea to blame Greece, in order to create necessary conditions to
call state of emergency and repeal the government to take over the
authority. Top commander of the Turkish Army Ilker Basbug, however,
fiercely condemned those allegations. Former commander of the 1st Army
Cetin Dogan, who is the main responsible of the plan, defended the
Sledgehammer Plan as a war exercise and a usual contingency plan.

There is already an ongoing probe since 2007 against the former soldiers,
journalists and academicians who are accused of creating an organization
called Ergenekon to topple the AKP government. Since it's beginning, AKP
used Ergenekon probe to crack down on military and civilian forces that
may pose challenge to AKP. Whether the recent Sledgehammer plan will be
merged with the Ergenekon case remains to be seen. But the fact that some
of the arrested generals are being sent to Istanbul to be questioned by
Ergenekon prosecutors supports this possibility.

The raid comes at a time when the struggle between the Islamist-rooted
Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Turkey's strictly secular civilian
and military bureaucracy intensified within the judiciary.(LINK: AKP government came under pressure
with the recent spat within the judiciary over the allegations of
interfering to the independence of judges and prosecutors. However, with
the investigation and arrest of retired generals over the Sledgehammer
Plan, AKP shows its ability to stave off such accusations and contain
army's traditional influence in Turkish politics.


Emre Dogru




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