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Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - DC power struggle over AKP, PKK

Released on 2012-03-08 08:00 GMT

Email-ID 1194936
Date 2010-08-18 15:26:23
sorry that should say 'if it was not yet made public'
On Aug 18, 2010, at 8:25 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

let's dig deeper to see if there is something more to it, though. This
source is quite reliable and i know this is an issue he has a lot of
access to... this was something he was dealing with directly while in
Ankara last week.
We have two competing views a) that Ocalan from prison still exercises
enormous influence over the group and b) that Ocalan does not carry as
much influence as before, that MIT learned that the hard way when they
attempted to quietly negotiate a ceasefire with him months ago, and that
Karlyan is their main guy that they can deal with, but he faces a lot of
resistance from more radical factions in Europe.
we may not have seen PKK ignoring Ocalan's call for ceasefire if it was
negotiated quietly and if it was made public. Ocalan may have given the
directive quietly to Karalyan and it was ignored until MIT came to
Karalyan directly. Let's be open to the alternative and see what else
we can get from both Turkish and Kurdish sources to see what the real
story is.
On Aug 18, 2010, at 8:19 AM, Yerevan Saeed wrote:

Have we ever seen any Ocalan's directives or signals to be ignored by
PKK or Karalyan? I really dont think so and the PKK is committed
with any call from Ocalan and his leadership. I am afraid I dont
agree with what he says about PKK/Ocalan relationship.


From: "Reva Bhalla"
To: "Analyst List"
Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2010 4:06:29 PM
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - DC power struggle over AKP, PKK

i may have gotten the 6 months thing wrong..i know he said several
months ago though. The point was that they tried to negotiate with him
several months ago, but PKK led by Karayilan ignored him.
I disagreed with him at first as well, but he was really adamant about
this issue and about Karayilan. He had seen some of the internal docs
on the ceasefire and the govt's concerns over keeping Karayilan alive.
It's also extremely important for the AKP to ensure that the Kurds
participate in the referendum. Sounds like they can work with
Karayilan to make that happen, but let's see
On Aug 18, 2010, at 3:09 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

Interesting view on Ocalan's influence over PKK and Karayilan. I do
not completely agree with his comments, but something to bear in
mind. I'll check this with my sources. (Also, the bit about
negotiating ceasefire six months ago sounds inaccurate since there
was a ceasefire in place by then. Remember, clashes started June 1)
The thing to watch now is PKK/BDP's decision to boycott referendum.
Against this decision, Ocalan gave signals to loosen the boycott and
let the Kurds to go to ballots. PKK/BDP cannot understand what he is
aiming for. Let's see if they will implement his decision.
Rest is not new. JITEM part is related to the ethnic clashes in
Hatay which made the AKP gov extremely nervous, as we wrote in our
previous piece about a possible ceasefire.


From: "Michael Wilson"
To: "Analyst List"
Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2010 12:59:55 AM
Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - DC power struggle over AKP, PKK

PUBLICATION: analysis/background
SOURCE Reliability : B
There is a huge battle taking place in DC right now between the
pro-AKP and anti-AKP forces trying to influence the admin. I had to
experience it first-hand today in trying to get an answer on a
question.. turns out this split is pretty bad, with the anti-AKP
voice having way more influence over the State dept and the
administration. I've also been noticing in some of these defense
policy circles discussions on TUrkey that the perception that TUrkey
is turning extremist under AKP has taken hold. THis is also
manifesting in the hold-up in Congress over the nomination for the
new US ambassador to TUrkey. Because this guy is seen as closer to
AKP as opposed to the secularist establishment, the anti-AKP and
Israeli lobby are influencing key senators to block the vote (a
letter from sen. brownback to clinton was leaked yesterday.)
From conversation with the source --
Ocalan doesn't carry influence over the PKK like he used to. AKP
needed to contain the PKK situation before the referendum. THey were
willing to do anything to make it happen. When they tried to
negotiate a ceasefire 6 months ago with Ocalan (this was done
through MIT,) Ocalan's directives to the PKK went completely
ignored. PKK uses Ocalan when they need him. They will lament his
treatment in prison and follow his call, etc. to benefit from his
charisma among the Kurds, but they dont take orders from him as much
as they did before. THis is especially true of the PKK branches in
Germany. The real man in charge is Murat Karayalin in Qandil. Only
when MIT negotiated with him this time were they able to implement
the ceasefire. (laughing) Let's just say, we are very concerned
about Karayalin's health. I have seen some internal document
expressing concern that the more radical factions in Germany could
eliminate Karayalin. We need to keep him alive. He is the only one
who will negotiate with us and who can enforce. We can't afford to
lose him.
The heron videos showing a PKK assault on the Hantepe military
outpost are very interesting. (Videos were broadcast by Taraf
newspaper -- the same newspaper that has printed very detailed
videos and other evidence that supported the AKP against the
military in all these Ergenekon/sledgehammer cases. The video shows
the firefight, with the PKK shooting at the troops with impunity.
The commander called backup and no one came. 7 soldiers died) THis
is being seen as a deep state thing in which the military turned a
blind eye to the attack and used the casualties to escalate the PKK
problem and try to create issues for the AKP ahead of the
The AKP is asserting its will over the military in very strong ways.
The military appointments issue was of course a big development.
Erdogan actually defended Basbug (former army chief of staff) for a
long time against hte Gulenists. The Gulenists are much more
anti-military, while AKP realizes a need to control the military,
but still work with them. However, when evidence came out on
Operation Cage, which was an op led by Basbug to tarnish AKP and
Gulen movement, Erdogan dropped him. When deciding the new military
appointments, Basbug invited Erdogan to the security council
meeting. Erdogan told him, no.. I don't need to go. You guys come up
with a list, and I'll decide yes or no.' Erdogan then went to a
meeting with some actress. THis was a huge sign.. it showed Erdogan
has authority over them.
The big issue for the AKP is to rein in the JITEM, the gendarmarie
intel and ct agency. JITEM is pretty much the embodiment of deep
state. Erdogan wants it completely purged.
US support on the Kurdish issue will come.. THis is part of the deal
TUrkey has with the US on Iraq. If Turkey gets what it wants from
the US on PKK, it will be a lot more cooperative in other areas,
including the Caucasus. I'll get more details on what that deal
Turkey will not compromise on Allawi. Erdogan even sent his own
personal advisors to develop ALlawi's propaganda campaign and build
up Sunni, Shia and Kurdish support for his bloc. THey are investing
a lot into this.
So far the polls show about 54% in favor of hte referendum. Still
hard to say that it will pass, but Erdogan sounds confident. THere
are a lot of promises being made to Kurdish areas for example. He
tells them I will give you Kurdish channels, courses, etc. whatever
you want to support democratic freedom, and more changes will come
when we change the constitution, if you side with us and vote for
change instead of voting no with the secularists.

Michael Wilson
Watch Officer, STRATFOR
Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

Emre Dogru
Cell: +90.532.465.7514
Fixed: +1.512.279.9468

Yerevan Saeed
Phone: 009647701574587