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RE: DISCUSSION/ BUDGET - Engaging with the Hezzies

Released on 2012-03-27 12:00 GMT

Email-ID 1196005
Date 2009-03-07 00:36:58
Please keep your lips to yourself.

-----Original Message-----
From: []
On Behalf Of Fred Burton
Sent: Friday, March 06, 2009 6:02 PM
To: 'Analyst List'
Subject: RE: DISCUSSION/ BUDGET - Engaging with the Hezzies

BiBi will kill Nasrallah unless the U.S. can insure HZ is in their box.
>From my lips to your ears.

-----Original Message-----
From: []
On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
Sent: Friday, March 06, 2009 3:01 PM
To: Analyst List
Subject: DISCUSSION/ BUDGET - Engaging with the Hezzies

sorry, im trying to hurry up b/c it's late in the day. the insight that i
sent out with ME1's and my back and forth explains it all.

1. The British are engaging HEzbollah.
2. this was a move coordinated with the US 3. that's a big break from Bush
policy, which was to completely isolate Hezbollah 4. US may not be
politically ready to deal with HZ, but it is ready to engage with syria,
which it's already doing.
5. The Syrians are in a complex situation right now, very clearly and
publicly engaging with the US, talking again with the Turks about wanting to
restart talks with the Israelis, all the while trying to reassure the
Iranians that they're not straying too far.
6. When it comes down to it, though, the syrians do not want Hezbollah
militarily empowered. They know they're going to have make some concessions,
but the direction they want to take is emboldening HZ as a POLITICAL
movement, allowing Damascus room to negotiate with US, Israel, Saudi in
cutting off HZ's militant arm.
7. According to our HZ insight, these discussions on moving more political
are underway already int he organization, which can lead to rifts

and that's what i call chaaaaaange, baby!

On Mar 6, 2009, at 2:54 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

> this needs discussion before it can become a piece
> Reva Bhalla wrote:
>> Writing up an analysis on the UK move to engage Hezbollah in
>> coordination with US moves to engage Syria, and what that means for
>> Iran
>> have a lot of info to organize, will try to get this out within the
>> hr medium-length