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Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - them's fightin' words

Released on 2012-03-15 20:00 GMT

Email-ID 1427935
Date 2011-06-15 23:41:19
I have been saying that Turkey is looking at a Syria beyond al-Assad but I
doubt that it is moving this fast.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T


From: Michael Wilson
Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2011 16:36:59 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - them's fightin' words
wait, what is an NDZ?

On 6/15/11 2:19 PM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

PUBLICATION: background/analysis
ATTRIBUTION: Turkish diplomatic source
Turkish diplomat in Lebanon
Reliability : C
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 4-- we need to check on the claim that turkey will
actually move forward with setting up a NDZ

yesterday's phone call between Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan and Syrian president Bashar Asad ended in failure. The call was
made by Erdogan but Asad was quick to congratulate him on his party's
third consecutive victory in parliamentary elections. Erdogan was very
blunt. He told Asad that he did not call him to be congratulated,
especially since Asad did not take the initiative to call. Erdogan told
Asad he wanted to get to the point with regard to reforms. Asad said he
is keen on reform once the army eliminates the salafis. Erdogan
retorted: "Do not give me excuses. You know there are no salafis."
Erdogan told Asad that even if there were salafis, there was no reason
why the authorities would punish the entire Syrian people.
Angry Erdogan told Asad that he did not want to hear words from him any
more. He told him the time has come for actions. Erdogan demanded a
timetable for bringing about the reforms. He got upset when Asad said
:"Inshallah soon we will have a timetable." Erdogan came out with the
impression that Asad was still bluffing him. Asad did not give any
indication that his troops will terminate their military campaign.
Erdogan will now support any UN resolution and will go ahead with any
requests for establishing a safe have along the border with Syria.
Turkish assessments indicate that it will take eight months to oust Asad
from the presidency

Michael Wilson
Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112