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Re: intel guidance - europe

Released on 2012-02-28 18:00 GMT

Email-ID 168783
Date 2011-11-03 17:06:18
According to the person from the IMF whom I have talked with, "Greek
authorities are monitoring the cash flow position closely and they believe
that they can manage until mid-December."

This graphic shows what they mean by mid-December (I can't way for
December 29 to arrive!):

Greek payments
On 11/2/11 10:11 PM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

We still haven't heard the opinion of the IMF! I think we have to find
out what role the troika plays in handing out the money. What if the
money is handed out despite the protests (at least in the media) from
Merkel and Sarkozy's side? That is a possibility right?

On 11/2/11 9:57 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

On it! The FODs are in France right now & said nothing is decided (and i mean nothing) until either Friday or the 8th in Berlin. I am trying to set up a session to game out all possibilities for Fri with FODs. They're being cautious in France. They also reminded me that the date for Med in Greece is up in the air--meaning Russia could cancel or speed it up.

Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 2, 2011, at 9:23 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

The Germans and French have cut off bailout money to Greece. This means Greece will run out of money very quickly and default. Perhaps even before the referendum. The timeline for the European crisis just accelerated disastrously.

Questions we need to break down:

1) Kristen: Need to dive into Greek politics tomorrow to see if we can form a forecast as to whether Papa-G can survive the confidence vote. That's probably going to need to be tomorrow's diary? If the answer is no, then this unwinds somewhat.

2) Adriano: Assuming the answer to #1 is yes, we need to find out how long Greece can last with the money in Athens' pockets right now, with no additional outlays from the EFSF. The IMF is likely the best source of unbiased (well, less biased) information in that regard.

3) Christoph: We need to be sure that German control of the EFSF is as strong as we think it is. Time to make some friends at the Facility to get their point of view of this latest twist to the crisis.

4) Lauren: I'm floored that the Russians aren't being tapped. This is getting disturbingly serious. Please buzz your FODs (friends of Dvorkovich) again to see if anything is changing as regards the G20/EFSF/$$$ commitments.

5) Everyone else: Its possible the Germans/French are going to try and reach out in light of the Greek situation to build up the EFSF. China, Korea and Brazil are the three states that'll be at the G20 (besides Russia) who could theoretically make a meaningful contribution. Considering that they are all en route at present the chances of hearing something in their capitals is slim, but its worth seeing if we can pick up anything.

Christoph Helbling

Adriano Bosoni - ADP

Attached Files

1398113981_Greek payments.jpg87.5KiB