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Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

Released on 2012-03-23 07:00 GMT

Email-ID 177586
Date 1970-01-01 01:00:00
and so back to Christoph's original point, I think we really do need to be
watching for emerging leaders in these protests who can play the populist
card and present themselves as the savior from the elites. this is the
ideal environment for fresh ideologies and leaders to be born


From: "Reva Bhalla"
To:, "Analyst List"
Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:25:11 AM
Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

Europeans aren't protesting the approval of a new EU constitutional
amendment. They're protesting out of fear that they're going to lose the
roof on their heads. the more basic your demands, the more likely the
protests will turn violent, and we can already see that the elites
handling the crisis won't be able to manage this crisis in the end. the
musical chairs we're seeing right now in the Greek and Italian governments
is likely only the beginning. we have to see that as the manifestation of
a much broader crisis in confidence, not on a national level, but on the
european level.


From: "George Friedman"
To: "Analysts Analyst List"
Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:14:24 AM
Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

Europe has not had mass violent protests since the 1960s although it has
had violence and terrorism. Its been quiet since the 1990s if you ignore

The europeans regard this new period as normal and the past as irrelevant.
It seems to me that the radical shifts in structure returns europe to its
prior state and with it mass violence becomes likely not just possible.
Europe has a violent history and that history is not so long ago.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T


From: Colby Martin
Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:10:30 -0600 (CST)
ReplyTo: Analyst List
Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
I am not sure how you can argue European protesters are not going to turn
to violence and the authorities won't resort to draconian measures to
suppress them. Right now the unemployed still have those nice little
social programs (especially in Spain) to support them so I agree right now
they should remain low key. But if the gov't has to reduce those programs
or cut them altogether, the protests could turn into bad in a hurry. I
just want to make sure this isn't the European argument that "they" are
more civilized, therefore violence is a thing of the past. (I throw up in
my mouth a little every time a European tells me this)

On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the same,
nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal out of
literally burnt cars by punks.

On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't spread
from country to country because they are based on national issues is
flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost every European
country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as what existed in
the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature of the regimes in
power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is that Tunisia
provides an example of how protest movements have the ability to
spread to other countries that feature similar socioeconomic

On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a decent
rule of law and government. In Europe we have that, unfortunately we
have a shitty economy, the protests are there but are unrelated
because each country has its own way to approach the economic
issues. We wont kill each other like people in north Africa, were
past that, and again no offense to people from the region. Europeans
live for the most part in democracies, expressing a discontent
(which is what is happening now) is different from fighting for your
freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia, Libya)

On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
Tunisia? And so on.

On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

I personally don't agree with this statement "these protests
could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
other countries". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
countries but i dont think they spread because they are
unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
(think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
injured people. Protests dont automatically imply "bad" events
to come

On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain
and spark to other countries. Are these protests going to
breed the future leaders of Europe?

Antonio Caracciolo
Analyst Development Program
221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
Austin,TX 78701

Antonio Caracciolo
Analyst Development Program
221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
Austin,TX 78701

Antonio Caracciolo
Analyst Development Program
221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
Austin,TX 78701

Colby Martin
Tactical Analyst