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Re: INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part 3 - Germany, US, Romania, Ukraine

Released on 2012-03-05 08:00 GMT

Email-ID 952814
Date 2010-10-01 13:52:39

From: "Chris Farnham"
To: "analysts"
Sent: Thursday, September 30, 2010 9:10:53 PM
Subject: INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part 3 - Germany, US, Romania, Ukraine

ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington & Chisinau
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
partially in Chisinau & super close to most politicians


As far as Germany, Germans have a**historica** ties to having former
villages and pockets of former population in Moldova. Russia kicked them
out, so there is a strange resentment between Germany and Russia over
Moldova. yeah, this is a huge factor in both Moldova and Romania

But this isna**t a red-line.

Instead, it is more about how the Moldova solidification will ripple
through Central Europe. But Germany can contain Russiaa**s move if it gets
an answer on Transdniestria. This will allow Germany to say to Europe
a**see, if we work with Russia, then we can accept your ruling there.
Germanya**s representative on the issue a** Patricia Flor a** told Russia
that if Moscow could get a resolution between Transdniestria and Moldova
started then Germany would be more open to Russia controlling the country.
Germany also said that if Russia could get a resolution started then the
rest of the EU would see it as a positive step in security assurances to

I have this feeling as well. I am wondering what he means by "Gets an
answer"... on what? Just what Russia plans to do in general? Troops

This basically goes with our initial take that Germany is testing Russia's
level of commitment and security cooperation. Moldova is not a do or die
situation for Germany. Germany can survive with Moldova in Russia's hands.
It has been for the past 20 years anyway.

Ukraine is on board with whatever Russia wants on the Moldova issue,
moreover it will help Russia with whatever is needed to help consolidate
the country.

Romania is simply terrible at influencing the country. Sure it wants to
hold Moldova from Russia and to its own. But Romania has not done any
grassroots moves. The US as asked Romania to set up NGOs, media, etca*|.
it hasna**t. Romania tried after the last election to set up a Moldova
Fund to invest in the countrya**but it has only given 100 million euros
thus far a** which is nothing.

The US has NO ONE interested in the country. Literally, the lobby in
Washington has no ties in government a** especially Congress, Senate, NSC,
etc. The only thing is a Moldova desk at State a** which means nothing.
There is even no USAID to Moldova. Sure MMC gives some money to Moldova,
but only $262 million.


Lauren Goodrich
Senior Eurasia Analyst
T: 512.744.4311
F: 512.744.4334


Chris Farnham
Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142

Marko Papic

C: + 1-512-905-3091