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INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - the German-Russian talks on Transdniestria viewed in Moldova

Released on 2012-03-05 08:00 GMT

Email-ID 963091
Date 2010-10-14 10:17:25
SOURCE: think tank analyst, close to the current Moldovan ambassador to
the US
PUBLICATION: for background
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1/2 (it's more his analysis on the matter plus some info
on EU/Germany knowledge)
DISTRIBUTION: eurasia, analysts

Let me know if anything is not understandable - translated from a Romanian
that was much metaphorical.

On the EU(Germany)-Russia security cooperation - the Moldovans think in
geographic terms that are very limited; only few persons that have read a
bit more on history and geography realizes that Moldova is located in the
'error margin' of the discussions between Russia and Germany. The problem
that I'm seeing is not related to the 2 partners but to the fact that the
US is out of the equation, out of the security discussions in the region
and particularly out of the discussions on Transnistria. This can't be
advantageous for Moldova: it is better to have on your side the US and the
EU and not only the EU. The third party presence in the negotiation
diminishes the possibility to conclude on something that is against the
Moldovan interest. In the same time, at a larger scale, the substitution
or the diminishing in importance of the NATO Council-Russia 'partnership'
and the fact that more parties are involved in the negotiation process on
the matter makes it less probable that we see any surprises in the future.
On the other side, the Russians are saying that Russia must not be
conditioned on anything before signing the pact on the new security
architecture on Europe.
The most important problem for Moldova - in case all the discussions go
further at the operational level - is the fact that we're not prepared for
the next step. The Moldovan MFA is not discussing with the president, with
the parliament, etc. In the same time, I've noticed that the people in
Bruxelles don't know about the negotiations content between Germany and
Russia, the EU has given its approval in a 'post factum' manner while the
Germans don't want to talk about it even if they are the only ones knowing


Chris Farnham
Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
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