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Re: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat andother issues

Released on 2012-03-07 16:00 GMT

Email-ID 99602
Date 1970-01-01 01:00:00
Yes, I'm going to make sure that you both meet. It would also be good if
we could send them invitations to attend the event. Do you think Tusiad
will give us some invitations to distribute to people there? I'd also
like people like the Brazilian ambo to Turkey (who you met last time and
who I met in Turkey,) Faruk and others to get an invite


From: "George Friedman"
To: "Reva Bhalla"
Sent: Tuesday, July 26, 2011 8:55:23 PM
Subject: Re: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat
andother issues

This is really good stuff. I'd like to meet the head of seta in dc to talk
visegrad when I'm up on the 12th and around that. . Could you make sure
that he gets my piece. Also is there any comments on tusiad? Kalin fight
is that d believes kalin was maneuvering for his spot which he was.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T


From: Reva Bhalla
Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 20:40:52 -0500 (CDT)
Subject: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat and
other issues
thought you might be interested in the bit about the spat between Ibrahim
Kalin and Davutoglu


From: "Reva Bhalla"
To: "watchofficer"
Sent: Tuesday, July 26, 2011 4:19:46 PM
Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat and other issues

PUBLICATION: background
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Nuh Yilmaz, transitioning from head of SETA (main AKP
think tank) in DC
Reliability : B

I stopped by SETA's office this afternoon to visit with the director and
wish him well before he returns to Turkey next week. Nuh is very close to
Davutoglu and is his student (practically worships him,) and is looking
out for his political future. He's leaving the SETA DC office to return to
Istanbul where he'll be the main liaison for Al Jazeera Turkish, which is
starting soon. As Emre brought up in an earlier discussion, AKP is nervous
about having al Jazeera operate in Turkey. Nuh expressed in so many words
that he'll be keeping a close eye on them. At the same time he's heading
up a new istanbul-focused branch for SETA to have more global reach - will
be spending a lot more effort in Europe and Central Asia to start off and
they want to learn from stratfor on how to do real analysis.

Interesting story - Ibrahim Kalin, Erdogan's chief advisor, gave an
interview to Haaretz last week in which he gave a softer stance on AKP's
demands on israel for the flotilla apology. This is the link -
I personally dont see Kalin as detracting that far at all from the
official policy, but apparently this caused a shit storm in Ankara between
Kalin and Davutoglu, who claimed that Kalin went off the reservation.
Kalin claimed he was taken out of context by the Haaretz reporter. Nuh
claims the issue is settled now and was visibly nervous that he mentioned
it. The spat is interesting though in terms of keeping track of AKP's
power players.

I met the new DC SETA director, who is a quiet man, doesn't let on much,
but always nods with a very knowing smile. He's older, seems a lot more
experienced. Don't have a full read on him yet, but plan to meet with him
one-on-one. When I met him, i was in their map room with Nuh explaining
the development of Visegrad analysis and where Turkey potentially would
fit in that. The new director was extremely interested in our analysis of
the issue.

There seems to be strong interest by AKP to get the military up to speed
and modernized. They feel ridiculous that iran is sailing its navy all
over the place and their own military has been out of the game for so
long. When we were talking about US needing to lean on Turkey more in the
region, and how it's in the US interest to help Turkey modernize its
military, he seemed hopeful, but still untrusting ... i keep getting the
impression from any Turks i interact with that they're still skeptical if
the US will get along with them. Turkey keeps blaming US for pushing them
on Libya, Syria, etc. (pretty lame excuse, if you ask me.) This will take
time to develop.

Nuh expressed how Turkey is increasingly coming to terms with hard power.
They are still being cautious though. That's what Davutoglu's trip to Iran
was about. Things were becoming very tense between Turkey and Iran over
Syria and Davutoglu reached an understanding with the Iranian regime.
Since then, they've backed off the syrians more. I mentioned to him how
the Saudis don't seem too impressed with Turkish influenc ein the region
so far and in playing a balancing role against Iran. he laughed and said
'i can't stand the Saudis. At least the Persians are smart.' He said that
the Saudis policies in Syria and Lebanon were not helpful. they turn
everything sectarian and exacerbate issues with Iran. He expressed a view
that a lot of Turks will express, about how Turkey has a more
sophisticated way of doing things while the Saudis are barbarians in
dealing with this kind of stuff.